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Thursday, December 30, 2004

2004 Bowl Picks, Paper Fortune Teller Method 

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The fortune teller.

Since sports betting against speads, money lines, and over/unders is pretty much a crapshoot, my brother and I wanted a method of making selections that removes all bias from the process. Behold: the paper fortune teller method. To make each bowl's pick, we asked my 13-year-old sister Sara to pick a number from the outside of the fortune teller (see above photo). Then, she was asked to select an animal from the inside:

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The animals.

Underneath each animal is a bet:

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The bets.

The bets are Take The Points (bet on the underdog and take the point spread), Give The Points (take the favorite and give up the spread), Over, Under, Money Line: Favorite, Money Line: Dog, and Stay Away From This One (don't bet).

The results:

Houston Bowl (Colorado vs. UTEP):
Favorite (Colorado) with the money line (-165)

Alamo Bowl (Oklahoma St. vs. Ohio St.)
Oklahoma -3.5

Continental Bowl (UNC vs. Boston College)
Under 51.5

Emerald Bowl (New Mexico vs. Navy)
New Mexico -2.5

Holiday Bowl (Cal vs. Texas Tech)
Over 65.5

Silicon Valley Bowl (Northern Illinois vs. Troy)
Favorite (Troy) with the money line (-160)

Music City Bowl (Alabama vs. Minnesota)
Alabama -1

Sun Bowl (Purdue vs. ASU)
Stay Away From This One!

Liberty Bowl (Louisville vs. Boise St.)
Stay Away From This One!

Peach Bowl (Miami, FL vs. Florida)
Florida +3.5

Outback Bowl (Georgia vs. Wisconsin)
Favorite (UGa) with the money line (-320)

Cotton Bowl (Texas A&M vs. Tennessee)
Stay Away From This One!

Gator Bowl (FSU vs. West Virginia)
Over 45.5

Capital One Bowl (LSU vs. Iowa)
Iowa +7

AND NOW FOR THE BIG ONES:

Rose Bowl (Tex-ass vs. Michigan)
Dog (Michigan) with the money line (+230)

Fiesta Bowl (Utah vs. Pittsburgh)
Under 66

Sugar Bowl (Auburn vs. Virginia Tech)
Dog (VT) with the money line (+210)

Orange Bowl (USC vs. Oklahoma)
Stay Away From This One!



So, perhaps in commentary of the BCS system that orchestrated the game, the paper fortune teller advises us to stay away from making a pick in the Orange Bowl. Sage-like advice, indeed.

Comments:
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Come and check it out if you get time :-)
 
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