Sponsored Links
2005 Mariners Pitchers' ROER:
Contact Who Wants To Watch The World Series!!
Mariners News
Mariners Blogosphere
Cubs Blogs
Baseball Links
Partisan Blogs
General Sports
WWTWTWS Hall Of Fame
Time Wasters

Wednesday, March 30, 2005

Mariner Lineup Similarity Scores: Yet Another Hijacked Idea 

The Los Angeles California Anaheim Angels people have been doing this on their blogs lately, and in WWWWS tradition, I will copy them to get an offseason story idea.

Baseball Reference has a feature on their player web pages that lists the ten players with the most similar careers to the player of interest, based on a formula that compares the players' career statistics. For example, the most similar player to former Mariner Carlos Guillen has been Julio Lugo.

Here's the Mariners' starting lineup (plus key pitchers and bench players) and their most similar players (at their current ages):

Mariner player: most similar player (similarity score)

Ichiro: Bill Everitt (914)
Randy Winn: Doug Glanville (960)
Adrian Beltre: Ron Santo (965)
Richie Sexson: Mo "Move On" Vaughn (933)
Bret Boone: Joe Gordon (918)
Raul Ibanez: Geronimo Berroa (963)
Jeremy Reed: insufficient data
Miguel Olivo: George Mitterwald (973)
Pokey Reese: Andre Rogers (943)

Jamie Moyer: David Wells (903)
Bobby Madritsch: insufficient data
Joel Pineiro: Jim Lonborg (982)
Gil Meche: Chris Knapp (982)
Aaron Sele: Pat Hentgen (958)
Ryan Franklin: Elmer Dessens (977)

Willie Bloomquist: insufficient data
Scott Spiezio: Vince DiMaggio (960)
Dan Wilson: Bret Boone's father Bob Boone (947)

J.J. Putz: insufficient data
Jeff Nelson: Steve Reed (943)
Eddie Guardado: Mike Stanton (932)
Shigetoshi Hasegawa: Turk Wendell (958)
Ron Villone: Rheal Cormier (926)
Julio Mateo: Red Lynn (986)

The natural follow-up question to this information is, of course, "What would our guys do in 2005 if they all exactly followed the career paths of their most similar players?"

Ichiro (Everitt): 23 G, .264/.287/.308 AVG/OBP/SLG, 67 OPS+
Winn (Glanville): 138 G, .249/.292/.344, 74 OPS+
Beltre (Santo): 155 G, .312/.412/.538, 161 OPS+
Sexson (Move On): 154 G, .337/.402/.591, 155 OPS+
Boone (Gordon): Retire
Ibanez (Berroa): 72 G, .225/.318/.298, 61 OPS+
Olivo (Mitterwald): 125 G, .250/.316/.389, 97 OPS+
Reese (Rogers): 47 G, .230/.314/.377, 97 OPS+

Moyer (Wells): However well Wells does this season (both are 42 this year)
Pineiro (Lonborg): 113 1/3 IP, 6-10, 4.29 ERA, 74 ERA+
Meche (Knapp): 117 1/3 IP, 2-11, 6.14 ERA, 64 ERA+
Sele (Hentgen): 80 1/3 IP, 2-9, 6.95 ERA, 70 ERA+
Franklin (Dessens): 175 2/3 IP, 8-8, 5.07 ERA, 92 ERA+

So, expect Ryan Franklin to be the "ace" of a sorry Mariners pitching staff in 2005. Look for great years from Beltre and Sexson and a league average performance from Olivo. Injuries will take the better part of Ichiro's, Ibanez's, and Reese's seasons, and be sure not to miss the epic collapse of Randy Winn. Oh, and if you can get any action in Vegas on Bret Boone Up And Retires Prior To Opening Day, take it.

Comments: Post a Comment