The one-time cellar-dwelling Oakland A's have completed a three-game sweep of the Mariners today. I have nothing further to add.

ROER is now up to date.

This from USS Mariner:

"Jose Lopez: 13 plate appearances, 2.2 VORP. Bret Boone: 262 plate appearances, 1.7 VORP. Lopez contributed more offense to the team from Friday through Sunday than Bret Boone has since opening day."

This is a dead horse that has been beaten by every remotely aware Mariners writer, so I'll be brief. Boone brings nothing to the table both in the batter's box and in the field, and with Lopez in the wings, it's time to shop Boonie for any marginal prospects we can get.


Joe, you nailed it about the younger players being a huge boost offensively. With Lopez replacing Boone for the time being, the M's have a lineup with which opposing pitchers don't have any easy outs. Mistakes can be costly to any hitter in the lineup, 1-9. And it's a balanced lineup -- against left-handers, the Mariners can put up six righties (seven if Bucky Jacobsen can be healthy enough to platoon with Ibanez sometime before 2009), and when a righty takes the hill, Winn crosses over and we have four lefties in the lineup, including Certified Righty-Masher Raul Ibanez.

The 2005 Seattle Mariners are no playoff contenders, but they're at least going to go down fighting.

Sponsored, in part, by The New Era Cap Company

Cammy's back in town. Rejoyce!

Not for the M's, true, but if you're not doing anything else this weekend go to the ballpark and show your appreciation for four years of incredible center field play.

Cammy might not play at all (he's battling about 4,832.23 different injuries right now), but if he does bat, I'd like to hear the DJ at the Safe play Cee-Lo's "Soul Machine" for #44:

Whenever you want some soul
Start him up
Whenever you need some soul
Start him up
See he's been given the power
To take you wherever you want to go
Start him up
And tell him what you want

Once you start up the soul machine
You will see what I mean
Open your eyes and enjoy the dream
He can do anything

Sponsored, in part, by Reser's Flour Tortillas.

Gil Meche was dominant last night. His one run, three hit, eight inning performance was absolutely Randyesque. The Phillies' Jim Thome summed it up:

His curveball is right up there with the best I've seen... What happened is that it made his fastball ... a lot quicker.

When Gil's pulling the string like he was last night, he should mow through just about any lineup.

Unfortunately, Meche has way too many performances like he did on April 22 against Cleveland, allowing 11 baserunners and a home run in five innings. This type of up-and-down performance from Meche (and Joel Pineiro as well) got me thinking -- Which active pitcher has the highest stuff-to-actual performance ratio? Meche and Pineiro have to be near the top. The only comparable I could think of off the top of my head was Jose Contreras. If you can think of anyone else, let me know.


Dave Niehaus:

When you read the Aflac Trivia Question for the first time each game, could you at least give me, say, a couple of batters to try to guess on my own? Last night, you asked "Which player has the most lifetime interleague home runs?" and said "Jim Thome" about four seconds later. Thanks.


I've been listening to a lot of Haiku d'Etat lately. If you're interested in hearing more from Aceyalone, Mikah 9, or Abstract Rude, use your favorite (legal) file-downloading software to pick up a few tracks. Or, if you've never heard of Aceyalone, Mikah 9, or Abstract Rude, check it out anyway. They will not disappoint.

...for being accepted into the graduate program at Florida State University. Make sure to register to vote down there, since they seem to need all the help they can get.

Have you ever seen something so funny and pathetic at the same time that a simple giggle, snicker, or guffaw just doesn't do it justice? Where the only natural response is to just let it all go and unleash a hearty belly laugh? This often happens in a bar or nightclub when a female who doesn't bring anything to the table tries to seduce every man in the bar. You see something this humiliatingly hilarious, and embarrassment be damned, out comes the "Wahhhhhhh!"

I saw another Wah today. Why this picture (look for the story named "March Sadness" was not brought to my attention sooner is a failure of both myself and of everyone to which I am close.

There's also a great photo of Ty Willingham rocking a yellow 2Pac bandana if you scroll down the page a bit.

I hate you so much, Huskies.

Yeah, he's a homer (and a Husky), but Caple likes the M's chances in a wide-open A.L. West this year.

After a split of their two-game, intradivision series (an idea which I hate, incidentally) against the A's, the M's host the Rick Vaughn-less Cleveland Indians this weekend.

FRIDAY:
Gil Meche (1-0, 6.14) vs. Carsten Charles "C.C." Sabathia (0-0, 1.59)

Sabathia has quieted any doubts about the health of his left hamstring, injured last September, by posting a strong start so far this season. It's probably an anomaly, though, since Carsten Charles has only started one game this season (a no-decision against the Twins). Tonight's as good a night as any for Sabathia to come back down to Earth.

Gil Meche has had two rocky starts and one good one so far this year. If he can get ahead of the Indian batters tonight, he will cruise, but if he falls behind often, he will struggle mightily. I hate to say it, but I'm thinking along the "struggle mightily" lines tonight.

Unfounded call of the game: Adrian Beltre pulls his head out of his netherregions and starts racking up some extra-base hits this series. Finally.

SATURDAY:
Aaron Sele (1-1, 6.19) vs. Cliff Lee (1-0, 4.76)

This game will take 4 hours and 32 minutes, minimum. With a crappy lefty on the hill for the Tribe, look for a big game out of the Beltre/Sexson/Boone trio.

Sele will Coug it.

SUNDAY:
Jamie Moyer (3-0, 3.00) vs. Scott Elarton (0-0, 7.90)

Moyer is looking more like the At Least We'll Win This Game pitcher of 1996-2003 than the abomination that was Moyer '04. This one looks like the M's most certain victory of the series.

With the tough games the Mariners are slated to play against the A.L. West, it is imperative that they beat up on weaker American League teams like Cleveland. This series will be an excellent indication of where the Mariners stack up this year. Losing two of three would signal tough times ahead.

It's a beautiful evening in the Pacific Northwest tonight, so fire up the grill, bring out the radio, and enjoy some sunshine and some Dave Niehaus.

It was somewhat theraputic hearing Dave Niehaus' "SWUNG ON AND BELTED! DEEP TO LEFT FIELD! GET OUT THE RYE BREAD AND THE MUSTARD GRANDMA, IT'S GRAND SALAMI TIME!!!" call of Bret Boone's first inning grand slam last night. Especially since I publicly stated that one of our righties would touch Zito at some point.

If you're in eastern Washington, get away from your computer and enjoy this gorgeous weather.

Brought to you by M.C. Hammer (a super-dope homeboy from the Oak-Town)

Oakland, Seattle, and the Los Angeles California Anaheim Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim each go into Wednesday's play tied for first place at a lackluster 7-7. The Mariners come back to Seattle today for a two-gamer against Billy Beane's Athletics.

With Beane and company coming to Safeco Field, it seems like an opportune moment to offer a quick thought the book that made Beane famous, Moneyball, by Michael Lewis. A common interpretation of Moneyball is that Beane and his Athletics organization simply do not employ the use of scouts, favoring statistical analysis nearly 100%. I think the main lesson that Lewis is trying to convey, actually, is that Beane, with an incredibly limited budget, has been forced to find quality players in ways and places that other teams are not looking. If Beane identified a freakishly athletic prospect, that showed some potential but had limited organized baseball experience, and lived in the backwoods of Alaska, for example, that no other teams knew about, Beane would go after him. Beane is simply after the undervalued, however they became to be undervalued.

To the hydrofoil! Oakland series preview:

WEDNESDAY:

Pineiro (0-1, 7.94) vs. Zito (0-3, 7.27)

When he's healthy, Pineiro is the one pitcher on the Mariners' staff that makes me say, "There's a chance for a no-hitter tonight." Unfortunately, he's probably not 100% tonight, so we'll have to wait at least one more start for that no-no. I do expect him to bounce back from his rough start last week though; let's say he goes six innings and allows three runs.

Zito's struggles from last season (11-11, 4.48) seem to have seeped into the first month of 2005. The Mariners will run out a string of powerful righties -- Beltre, Sexson, and Boone -- in the middle of the lineup against a lefty that's somewhat longball-prone (Zito gave up 28 home runs last season). Hopefully the Mariners can force an early exit from Zito.

8-5, Mariners.

THURSDAY:

Franklin (1-1, 2.18) vs. Harden (0-1, 0.68)

Franklin continues to exceed my expectations, and hopefully he can continue that trend if the Mariners are going to have a chance on Thursday. The problem is that the Athletics' lineup has home run power up and down, and Franklin is a home run pitcher. Eric Chavez has a great chance at more than one longball for the A's. As Dave Niehaus just told me, Chavez has hit the second-most homers (13) of any player on a visiting team at Safeco Field (if you can't think of who has hit the most, for shame). A lot of runs could be scores for the men in green.

Rich Harden has been nearly unhittable so far in 2005, holding hitters to a .200 batting average. I expect similar numbers from the Mariners hitters. This one will get ugly, and I see Oakland coming out on top in a squeaker, 11-2. If you want to kill any optimism you might have had about this and subsequent Mariner seasons, watch Rich Harden pitch and remember that he's only 23 years old. He could be the next Pedro Martinez-Mike Mussina Official Thorn In The Mariners' Sides.

A'S LINKS:

Athletics Nation. This is the only place you need to go to read about the A's.

7:15 PM:
For some strange reason, Blogger ate the last half of today's preview. I had to re-write it tonight, and hopefully this edit doesn't suffer the same fate.

With today's 5-3 triumph over the Angels, the Mariners finished their eight-game road trip at 5-3 and improved to 7-7 overall.

Eddie Guardado's save was significantly less dicey than usual. Even though Garrett Anderson came to the plate as the tying run, it was with two outs, and Guardado got Anderson to ground out to Ibanez at first to end the game. The key to the inning was that Guardado retired the first two hitters, Darin Erstad and Orlando Cabrera, so that when Super Vladimir Guerrero came to bat the tying run was still on deck. In spite of this afternoon's relatively quiet ninth inning for the Angels, with Guardado toeing the slab I always fear the worst and hope for the best.

The broadcast Quote of the Game came from Dave Niehaus in the Mariners half of the eighth inning, when the M's loaded the bases with one out and Beltre and Sexson due up.

"The table is set with the best silverware and the best crystal!"

Beltre and Sexson took their seats at the table, but each struck out swinging. Then they flipped over their dinner plates angrily, muttered "F#*% this, I'm leaving!", and stormed off without even trying driving in any of the tasty runs that Miguel Olivo, Ichiro, and Jeremy Reed spent all inning preparing.

The lump sum of the Mariners offense came in the first two innings, aided by homers from Sexson and Ibanez. The ability of the Mariner offense to disappear for several innings does not cease to amaze me. Unlikely as it is, if Miguel Olivo could bring ANYTHING to the table offensively it would help the cause in a huge way. As it stands now, Olivo and Wilson Valdez at the bottom of the order have hit like National League pitchers, which in the American League is not going to get the job done. Valdez reached on a perfectly executed bunt down the first base line in Monday's game, and I'd like to see him try that at least once every three games or so. It could mean the difference between Valdez being an abysmal hitter and simply being a below-average one.

While the results of this road trip are nothing to get too excited about (three of the wins were against the Royals, might I remind you), it's worth remembering that in '04 the M's didn't post a winning road trip until September. Yep, September. They're not exactly taking the American League by storm like they did in the first halves of the 2000 through 2003 seasons, but at least the 2005 Mariners are competitive.

Aaron Sele has officially come back down to Earth, allowing six earned runs in four innings in Monday's 6-1 loss against the Angels. Five of those runs came on home runs by Vladimir Guerrero and Darin Erstad (who is just KILLING my Bad Fantasy Team the way he's been hitting). Both Angels hitters connected on curveballs right in their respective wheelhouses.


Angels slugger Vladimir Guerrero identifies a section of third-level fans, any of whom also could have hit Aaron Sele's hanging curveball out of the park. (Seattle Times photo)

The Mariners rotation is a mess right now. With Bobby Madritsch on the shelf and with Sele and Ryan Franklin holding rotation member status, we can really only expect one good start per cycle. Two if we're lucky. Luckily the ageless Jamie Moyer is taking the mound in about six hours. I probably wouldn't even listen to the game if Franklin was up next.

Despite losing two of three games to the White Sox this weekend, the Mariners are tied for first place (albeit with just a 6-6 mark). And on top of that, the team sports the best run differential in the American League West division, outscoring their opponents by eleven runs overall. Easily, the Mariners could be sitting on a 7-5 or even 8-4 record, and a lot of newspaper column inches would be devoted to stories about Mike Hargrove being the greatest manager since the invention of the telegraph and Willie Bloomquist deserving Most Valuable Player votes for playing so many positions in the field. However, we're only twelve games into this crazy adventure called 2005, and as The Wolf (portrayed masterfully by Harvey Keitel) cautioned Vincent Vega and Jules Winfield in Pulp Fiction, we must remember not to go (uh, congratulating oursleves) just yet.

The Angels series:

Monday, 7:05 PM
Aaron Sele (0-1, 3.75) vs. Paul Byrd (0-2, 6.92)

Vladimir Guerrero might hit a 500-foot home run against Sele today. It's probably worth watching the game just for that possibility. Luckily for the Seattle nine, though, Paul Byrd is on the hill for the Angels. I'm calling a higher-scoring affair than recent games have been, with the M's prevailing 8-6.

Tuesday, 1:05 PM (you guessed it, radio only)
Jamie Moyer (2-0, 2.50) vs. Kevin Gregg (1-0, 5.40)

Gregg, like Ryan Franklin for Seattle, is a mop-up reliever being thrust into the starting rotatio. Unlike Franklin, Gregg has little previous starting experience, but in his four career starts he's 4-0 with a 2.16 ERA. For his starting ERA to match his career 4.08 ERA, Gregg would need to allow eight runs in five innings Tuesday. Sounds about right to me. Moyer should continue his strong start and the Mariners prevail 10-4.

The story of the 2005 season, at least in regards to the Seattle Mariners, has been the hot start posted by Ichiro. Through twelve games, he's on pace for (I hope you're sitting down) 283 hits. Yeah, it's only twelve games in, but looking at the Major League batting average leaders, there is one name in the top ten that doesn't seem out of place. He might not maintain his .447 average, but .400 isn't completely unattainable.

ANGELS LINKS:

6-4-2. Named after an incredibly unlikely shortstop-second base-catcher double play, this site pulls double duty, covering the Angels as well as the Dodgers.

Chronicles of the Lads. I don't think I've ever heard Vlad described as a "lad" before, nor do I expect to.

Purgatory Online. I wonder what kind of traffic comes his way via the search engines.

Baseball Prospectus, among other sources, publishes Run Expectancy charts (subscription required). These nifty little tables outline with a three-by-eight grid the average number of runs that score after a given baserunners/outs situation. For 2004, the chart looked like this:

Runners, outs, Run Expectancy:

---, 0, 0.54
---, 1, 0.29
---, 2, 0.11
1--, 0, 0.93
1--, 0, 0.55
1--, 0, 0.25
-2-, 0, 1.16
-2-, 1, 0.71
-2-, 2, 0.34
--3, 0, 1.47
--3, 1, 0.96
--3, 2, 0.46
12-, 0, 1.45
12-, 1, 0.97
12-, 2, 0.36
1-3, 0, 1.85
1-3, 1, 1.22
1-3, 2, 0.52
-23, 0, 2.13
-23, 1, 1.47
-23, 2, 0.62
123, 0, 2.25
123, 1, 1.59
123, 2, 0.81

Under the "Runners" column, a dash represents an empty base and a number represents an occupied base. So "1-3" indicates baserunners occupying first base and third base, with second base open.

One neat trick that this chart allows you to do is figure out how many runs a particular play is worth. For example, a leadoff triple changes the run expectancy of an inning from 0.54 to 1.47, so a leadoff triple can be considered to be worth 0.93 runs, on average. A home run with runners on second and third with one out changes the run expectancy from 1.47 to (3 runs already scored) + (expectancy of bases empty and one out, 0.29) = 3.29, making the home run worth 1.82 runs. (You'd expect a three-run home run to be worth exactly three runs, but that ignores the probability of the two runners on base being driven in by subsequent batters). This concept is certainly not new, as I have seen it from time to time in various analyses of teams' performance in different situations.

I've used the chart in a similar fashion, but from the pitchers' standpoint. For each pitcher that the Mariners have used, I've figured out the Run Expectancy when he entered an inning, and the Run Expectancy (factoring runs actually scored as well) when he left the inning. So if a pitcher started an inning with the bases empty and none out and allowed one run before being replaced with two outs and a runner on first, the pitcher's Runs Over Expected Runs (ROER) would be:

Expected Runs entering the inning: 0.54
Actual runs scored: 1
Expected additional runs when the pitcher left the game: 0.11

ROER = 0.54 - 1 - 0.11 = -0.57

So this hypothetical pitcher (We'll call him Obby Bayala) cost the Mariners 0.57 runs over what could be expected.

I think that ROER is a good indication of a pitcher's overall value to a team, factoring in the difficulty of the situations that pitchers are thrown into and the difficulty of situations left to others. So a short reliever whose job is to put out the fires started by others gets credit for not allowing inherited runners to score (something ERA ignores completely, simply giving the runs to the pitcher that put the runners on base), and a starting pitcher that consistently leaves runners on base to the relievers is penalized regardless of whether the bullpen bails him out. Starting pitchers, who begin every inning with the bases empty and none out, are rewarded for pitching much more innings than the relievers.

For the 2005 Seattle Mariners, the pitching staff has shaped up like this:

Pitcher, ROER:

Ryan Franklin, +5.94
Aaron Sele, +5.25
Shigetoshi Hasegawa, +2.93
Jamie Moyer, +2.93
Julio Mateo, +2.26
Jeff Nelson, +1.44

Ron Villone, -0.94
Bobby Madritsch, -1.27
J.J. Putz, -1.46
Eddie Guardado, -1.85
Gil Meche, -3.36
Matt Thornton, -4.28

Not surprisingly, Ryan Franklin rates as the Mariners' most valuable pitcher so far and Matt Thornton ranks as the most costly.

The case which best illustrates why I like ROER over ERA is that of Eddie Guardado. Guardado sports a nice little 2.50 ERA, despite a not-so-good -1.85 ROER. Guardado allowed four runs in the ninth inning of last week's 7-6 loss against the Rangers. Three of those runs were recorded as unearned after Bret Boone missed an easy grounder. If Everyday Eddie had pitched out of the jam created by Boone's error, his resulting good ROER would match up nicely with his excellent ERA. ROER does a good job at identifying the cases that ERA misses: pitching out of trouble caused by bad fielding, preventing inherited runners from scoring, and not leaving baserunners to subsequent pitchers.

Throughout the season I'll be updating the Mariners pitchers' ROER, and posting them permanently on the sidebar.

I've already apologized to Ryan Franklin for having any doubts about his ability to perform as a starting pitcher. It should be noted, though, that so far in 2005, Franklin's surrendered batting average on balls that are put into play (basically, every at-bat that wasn't a strikeout or a home run; simply put, the ones the fielders have a say in) is a cool .178. The Major League average is around .300. If, say, Franklin's balls in play had dropped in at a .280 average (still about .020 less than league average), he would have allowed 13 hits rather than just eight in his 12 2/3 innings of work. The effect of these additional baserunners is debatable, but anyone would agree that they would push Franklin's ERA much higher than the 2.13 that he currently enjoys. Franklin said it himself:

I made pretty decent pitches. I didn't leave too much over the middle of the plate. It was just one of those days. A lot of those balls could have fell in. A lot of those ground balls could have found the hole. But I had luck on my side today. (Thursday's Seattle P-I)

We'll see if Franklin continues to keep the ball in the park after that brutal Los Angeles California Anaheim Los Angeles of Anaheim-Oakland-Cleveland-Texas-Oakland-Los Angeles California Anaheim Los Angeles of Anaheim-Boston-New York-Boston-New York stretch takes the Mariners from the end of April to mid-May.

Aaron Sele, despite his Washington State University heritage, in fact failed to Coug it against the Royals, putting up 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball Wednesday. Sele, like Franklin, is having early success despite putting a lot of balls in play. I expect his ERA to rise to the 4.50 region by season's end.

Sele's numbers, incidentally, could be a lot better than the 3.75 ERA he currently boasts. In his first start against the Texas Rangers, Sele left the game after 5 2/3 innings, having given up only two runs. Ron Villone and Julio Mateo failed to do their jobs in the sixth inning, allowing both of Sele's baserunners to score. Sele could quite easily have an ERA of just 2.25. This subject is inspiration for an upcoming post.

Today was all about Jamie Moyer. He went seven innings, allowing two runs, scattering nine hits, walking one and striking out four. Moyer, Like Sele and Franklin, has been the beneficiary of good fortune (although not nearly to the extent to which the other two have). Moyer has allowed 21 hits and walked five in 18 innings, giving him a baserunners-to-innings ratio of an I'd-Like-To-See-Better 1.44. He has actually been a bit unlucky with his balls in play numbers, though, surrendering a .339 batting average. His strikeout totals, while not earth-shattering, are a respectable 6.5 per nine innings. While I don't envision Moyer's 2.50 ERA holding up for the rest of the season, I think it's reasonable to expect something in the neighborhood of 3.5, which would be just fine by me.

The sweep of the Royals leaves the Mariners with a 5-4 overall record and an early tie with the Los Angeles California Anaheim Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for first place.